24
2
|
Posted by finalflash Promoted 105 days 22 hours ago 1147 views
Business / Markets Stocks Funds
|
11 comments
|
|
Before I begin, I would like to let you know that this is mainly my opinion and by no means something you should take as gospel. Also, there is a lot of shit I have to write, and so to make it shorter, I will not be explaining the whole story on certain situations that are common sense, comment if you need clarification. I won't be citing much either, it is all easily obtainable and mainly from reuters too. This is also going to be very long and in a 2 or 3 part series if people like it enough.
Economic Disaster
I believe this is probably the most dangerous time for the US since its creation, and I shall explain why. As most people reading this already know, the economy is all hell right now, and it seems that nothing will stop the nightmare that is currently facing the US. Some might say that there were more troubling times in the past in some war or some past recession or depression, I would say they are wrong. The main reason for this is the current competition which includes China, Canada, India and many others. Also, the steps currently being taken are seriously insane and I shall explain why I think that later.
Firstly, let me explain why this current economic situation is worse than any war or physical threat to the US. Many people in the US (mainly the idiots) perceive the main threat to the US being terrorism and missiles and nuclear weapons in Iran or whatever the hell. This is BS since any prominent physical attack on the US has to first clear over a thousand kilometers of oceans on either side, after which it has to defeat some of the best defenses on the planet and the military output of a country larger than Eastern Europe. People have been convinced by the current administration that this is easily possible, which is BS. A physical attack on the US is one of the hardest tasks to successfully accomplish, and even Hitler would not be able to imagine doing so since he couldn't even take Britain proper. The likes of China and Russia or much less some terrorist retards being able to compromise the US past something like 9/11 (which is blown way out of proportion) is not probable in any sense of the word.
Now that that is out of the way, let me explain how to destroy the US and how it is currently being done. Basically the only way to kill the US is to kill its economy and that is what is currently in danger in the US. In macro economics, the term "Vicious Cycle" refers to a set of circumstances such as deficits, losses and depreciation of assets leading to more of the same every quarter. The "Virtuous Cycle" refers to the opposite, where surpluses, gains, investment and appreciation leads to more of the same. For decades the US has enjoyed a virtuous cycle, and this lead to record growth and high living standards. Yet for the past 8 years, it has entered what looks like a vicious cycle which may continue for decades and maybe even centuries. What most people believe is that this is another hitch in the regular cycles of small recessions and such in the US economy as has been the standard for a century now. That is where I believe that most people are wrong, that this is just another small problem that will pass. In the last century, no other economy in the world has been able to compete with the US economy in terms of industrial output and efficiency. Thanks to this, the US has been able to crawl out of several depressions and recessions since no real competition existed. Now the story is vastly different, and that is why I believe that it is no longer a part of a trend, but the formation of a new one. The current recession the US is facing is not one that can be resolved as easily as in the past. That's enough history, hopefully that will be enough to hold most people through this.
The credit crisis did not cause the recession, it just made it happen faster and it is accelerating it still. Just today Bear Stearns got an offer from JPMorgan of $2 a share, with its price on Thursday being around $60 and on Friday at about $30. Now on Monday, we see a drop in the price of their stock to about $4 (I called this on Friday but didn't finish this ed in time to post, got tons of money out of it though :) ). American Home Mortgages fell from $50 to $0.8 a share in 2007 and many other companies have lost incredible amounts of value, and this nightmare isn't even over yet. These are Enron style loses yet these are not reported on the mainstream media at all to the average person. The reason for this is because Enron was one company, and they can be made into a drama easily while the problem can be blamed on the people in charge. Yet this is an industry wide phenomenon, where not one bank, but the whole sector is affected because all of them were in on it. Problems in the banking sector are just beginning to appear and most of the value that remains will take a hit. Many people will lose their jobs and many companies will die in this disaster. The Fed's response to this has been the cutting of interest rates and injections of large amounts of cash into the economy. Thanks to this, the value of the US dollar has sank and investors the world over are losing faith in the US economy. The Dow has now lost all its gains from 2007, and the S&P is down to pre-2001 levels. Investment in the US economy is at its lowest, budget deficit for Feb hit a record $180 billion, and the trade deficit hit about $50 billion for Jan. These are all signs that money is quickly flowing out of the US to other economies, hence their record rise in most regions. The competition from China and India is extremely high, the Senssex is up considerably, and even the Karachi stock exchange is up 900% since 2000 (should of dumped money in that too).
To recover from this, the US would need to pull out of NAFTA and put tariffs on the Chinese imports, to help its own industrial sector regain its previous dominance and stop the outsourcing. This is impossible as has been seen since both of the parties involved there have threatened to pull oil exports or dump US dollars respectively. The reducing of interest rates and cash infusions by the fed is a catastrophic response since all it does is increase inflation and artificially keep the economy looking like it is doing fine. By dumping more money and reducing rates, the stock market briefly rises, which is expected since all the stocks will then be realigned by the new rate of inflation. They all go up for a day or two, and then continue their normal path of down, down and down again. This is a bad idea mainly because it makes the death of the US economy slow and painful. It allows profit taking in excess and it also allows other markets to smoothly shift their investments away from the US, so in the end when it all goes to hell, the US will be the only one going. If the fed had let the recession happen naturally and accepted it instead of trying to prop up a damn skeleton with roses, then other economies would have sank with them and in the end, recovery would have been easier. Now, any drops in the international economies are because US companies are dragging them down, and any recovery given to them will allow them to shift away one step at a time. This is why I believe that this entire economic situation is a little more complex than most people are telling you it is.
A quick fact, the US went into depression before WW2 when a lot of people shifted money into European banks because they were offering better rates. Although this is less likely to happen now that is only because of the oil and dollar hegemony, which brings me to the next part about why that is going to kill the US as well.
