The 99942 Apophis asteroid is a near-Earth object, gaining spotlight in 2004. Scientists now drawing cool defense plans in case it, or an object similar to it, falls into a 'collision-course' with Earth in future.
ShoutWire Science & TechThe 99942 Apophis asteroid is a near-Earth object, gaining spotlight in 2004. Scientists now drawing plans in case it, or an object similar to it, falls into a 'collision-course' with Earth in future.Thoughts of asteroids in today's world may leave one with mental images of a lurking, ominous space rock or perhaps Liv Tyler dancing around to Aerosmith. While the movie industry has indeed capitalized from films with doomsday scenarios, in 2036 fiction will venture close to reality.
NASA scientists are now looking skyward with professional concern, making plans in case a quarter-mile-wide, 20 million ton Aten-class asteroid named Apophis falls into a collision course with Earth. A private group, known as the
B612 Foundation, specializes in tracking near-Earth objects and conceptualizing plans to deter said objects by 2015. This is done in addition to lobbying for scientific and government attention, including that from NASA.
While the field of accurate and precise asteroid path forecasting is developing, still based heavily in computer models and theoretical applications as opposed to observation, it does represent our only means of prepared defense from such potentially catastrophic asteroid impact events.
99942 Apophis and EarthThe 99942 Apophis asteroid gained major attention in 2004, where initial predictions by astronomers gave it a 1/37 chance of striking Earth, though later reduced in probability by magnitudes of thousands. While an asteroid of its size should not create an impact event thought to have 'wiped-out' dinosaurs, it would be enough to cause regional devastation or a potentially major tsunami event.
Based upon models, the asteroid should be making a near pass with Earth in 2029 and 2036. While various reports maintain the 2029 pass does not warrant anywhere near significant concern for a direct impact, it's the uncertainty created by the event and the following years that have scientists a bit uncertain.
As mentioned, current asteroid tracking is largely contingent upon computer models and theoretical work. Within these conditions, many variables creep in that can significantly change factors figured into predictions. The 2029 pass may cause a significant shift in the asteroid's path, along with factors such as solar winds from the Sun and gravitational effects from asteroids and other planetary bodies. In short, a shift in path can drastically increase the probability of the asteroid crashing into Earth.
Due to this concern, scientists have maintained a planned time-line of circumstance and reaction. As of now, theoretical models still dictate the Earth should be safe from an impact, meaning we have little to worry about. Direct observation of the asteroid, and therefore a more accurate orbital path, should be available between 2011 and 2013.
If NASA and global astronomers find cause of concern by the asteroids path, in 2019 Earth will launch a probe to the asteroid. This probe will accurately plot the asteroid's path and give us a fairly good idea, within yards, of how close the asteroid will come to Earth by 2020.
Earth DefenseAs the 2020 probe may find, we could be in for trouble. If this is the case, NASA and associated groups have already started to conceptualize means of defending Earth from the Apophis asteroid
Defense initiatives would be launched between the window of 2024 and 2028.
From movies, the first thing we usually think when hearing "incoming asteroid" is to fire up the nukes and send out some hero astronauts to save the day. While such actions would be epic, they certainly may not be the most practical.
Even though the 'nuke' option does remain a possibility, there are other methods of diverting objects to get too close to Earth.
NASA Scientists Discuss Apophis and the Past 2004 ConcernLow cost defense schemes involving series of weights or solar sails to nudge the asteroid off course could be employed, A low tech scheme of painting an asteroid surface white, to change its solar radiation (and thus alter its course) has even been proposed.
Though novel, none of the ideas may hold up to the proposed gravity tractor. The craft, as seen in the ShoutWire Gallery above, would cost an estimated $200-300 million. In simplest terms, the-multi ton craft could be launched to orbit in proximity to an asteroid, using gravitational force to 'tug' an asteroid off a collision course.
While there is no cause for panic or immediate concern based on current predictions, it is impressive that science has progressed to a point to where we do have options in deterring an object that poses harm to Earth.
Supplemental ReadingUniversity of Hawaii: Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System
B612 Foundation Correspondence With NASANASA: Near Earth Object ArchiveUniversity of Arizona: Spacewatch ProjectGravity Tractor